Americans’ economic pessimism has turned what could have been a favorable midterm environment for Republicans into a fight for control of Congress, pollster Scott Rasmussen tells the Daily Signal.

With less than a week before Election Day, Rasmussen predicts the House is leaning toward Democrats while control of the Senate is uncertain. He joined me on the latest episode of “Midterm Report.”

“The reason we’re in the political environment we’re in today is because people are just as pessimistic about their personal finances today as they were on the eve of election 2024,” said Rasmussen, founder and president of RMG Research.

President Donald Trump benefited from Americans’ frustration with the high cost of living two years ago when he defeated Democrat Kamala Harris. Now, Rasmussen said, voters could punish Republicans because prices remain high.

“When the price of gas goes up, that amount of discretionary spending for everything else goes down. In fact, the biggest thing that people cut back on when gas prices go up is groceries,” Rasmussen said. “Every week when you go to the gas pump, you feel like you got a pay cut from the week before. And that’s the primary driving force in this pessimism.”

Over the course of Trump’s second term, Rasmussen has consistently asked voters the question, “Are your personal finances getting better or worse these days?” In early February, more than a year into Trump’s presidency, the numbers had improved—32% of voters said their finances were getting better compared to 30% who said they were worse.

That was near the best Rasmussen had seen in five years.

Then the U.S. attacked Iran at the end of February. The numbers have only grown worse since then.

“If you had asked me in February, I would have said if the trend continues, the Republicans are going have a very good political environment in November,” Rasmussen said. “However, I didn’t anticipate the war with Iran.”

He added, “I want to be clear, what I’m about to say is not policy question about the wisdom of the war or how evil Iran is—clearly they’re a force for evil in the world—but from a purely political point of view, the war has been a disaster for the GOP.”

Control of Congress

The consequences of that economic pessimism could be significant for Republicans, who are fighting to maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

Rasmussen currently rates 224 House races as either safe or likely Democrat, six more than Democrats need for a majority.

“If we’re right on those ratings, the Democrats are going to take control and the only question is how many seats,” Rasmussen said.

He cautioned against expecting a massive wave, however, predicting there wouldn’t be a “Tea Party type of tsunami.” Republicans still have a path to holding the House, Rasmussen said, but “it’s pretty slim at this point.”

“Even when we look at the upside scenarios for the GOP, they could barely be clinging to power,” he said.

The Senate is harder to predict.

Rasmussen currently rates 47 Senate seats as safe or likely Democratic and 46 as safe or likely Republican. Of the seven competitive seats, four are pure toss-ups and three lean slightly toward Democrats.

“We could very well end up with a 50-50 Senate,” Rasmussen said.

Among the races he’s watching closely is Texas, where Republican Ken Paxton faces a race Rasmussen says is “far closer than anybody expected it to be, or Republicans wanted it to be.” Yet Rasmussen cautioned that what he calls “political gravity” could ultimately pull undecided voters toward their state’s normal partisan preference.

“It’s probably the most significant,” Rasmussen said of the Texas contest.

Republican Enthusiasm

Over the past several weeks, Trump has campaigned across the country for Republican candidates. At rallies, the president touts his administration’s successes and tells voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.”

The GOP’s challenge isn’t necessarily turning out Trump’s most loyal supporters. Rasmussen said those voters remain enthusiastic. The bigger problem is traditional Republicans who are less committed to the president.

Rasmussen said his polling shows 74% of Trump’s base approves of his handling of inflation, compared to just 26% of more traditional Republicans.

That divide carries over to enthusiasm about the midterms.

“The Republican base, the Trump base, remains fired up about voting in the election,” Rasmussen said. “Those who remain part of the base are just as fired up as Democrats, and usually the opposition party is more enthusiastic.”

The problem rests with Republicans who may have voted for Trump in 2024 without being firmly part of his political base.

“Those voters [are] decidedly unenthusiastic about this election,” he said. “I think more attention should have been paid to getting them out to vote.”

Are the Polls Wrong?

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has publicly voiced doubts about polling, but Rasmussen said Republicans shouldn’t assume the polls are fundamentally wrong.

Rasmussen acknowledged that polls could miss by a couple of percentage points, which would be decisive given the number of close races. But he argued that the bigger problem is often how polls are interpreted, rather than the polling itself.

As an example, he pointed to the 2016 presidential election. Rasmussen said national polls forecast that Democrat Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote by three points, and she won it by two. He also noted that Michigan and Pennsylvania were within the margin of error, while Wisconsin was the major polling miss.

“It was an analysis error,” Rasmussen said of the conventional wisdom that Trump could not win in 2016.

He offered Texas as a contemporary example. A poll showing a candidate ahead by one point does not necessarily predict that candidate will win.

“If Ken Paxton wins by a couple of points and the poll said he was going to lose by a point, that’s not really a polling error because a one-point lead is just telling you this race is too close to call,” Rasmussen said.

Polling has nevertheless become harder, he said, because some demographic groups are considerably more willing to participate than others. People with postgraduate degrees are particularly avid poll respondents, Rasmussen said, while people in rural areas are harder to reach.

“Right now, the people that are hardest to get on the polls are those who are likely to lean Republicans,” Rasmussen said. “So you have to make a special effort.”

Polling’s Credibility Problem

Recent controversies involving fake polling firms “Median Strategies” and “Wedgewood Polling” have raised doubts about the credibility of polls. Rasmussen said media outlets and polling aggregators bear responsibility for ensuring pollsters have an established track record before amplifying their findings.

“It’s obviously embarrassing when something like this comes out,” Rasmussen said. “I think, though, the bigger embarrassment should be for the media and for the polling aggregators who published those polls.”

Rasmussen said pollsters should prove their credibility in a previous election cycle before media outlets take them seriously. He also encouraged news organizations to put greater emphasis on polling averages rather than individual surveys.

“If someone puts out a poll and you want to report on it, I think it would be incredibly important to say, ‘We’ve never heard of this firm. They’ve never polled before publicly,’” Rasmussen said.

Rasmussen on the ‘Elite 1%’

One group Rasmussen has extensively studied is what he calls the “elite 1%.”

His definition isn’t based solely on wealth. The group consists of high-income Americans with postgraduate degrees who live in densely populated urban areas.

“To suggest that they don’t see the same world as the rest of us is a gross understatement,” Rasmussen said.

Rasmussen said his research consistently finds these voters have “less faith in voters and more faith in government.”

“Half of these elites think you should not be allowed to vote unless you have a college degree,” he said.

Rasmussen explores the group in his book, “Out of Touch: The Elite One Percent and the Battle for America’s Soul.” He argues that the divide reflects a much larger disagreement over the role of voters and government in America.

A Reason to Remain Optimistic

Despite his gloomy assessment of the political environment, Rasmussen ended our interview on an optimistic note.

He pointed to America’s 519,000 state and local elected officials as an important counterweight to the concentration of power in Washington, arguing that elected leaders closer to the people are more accountable to the citizens they represent.

“America’s best days are still to come,” Rasmussen said. “And the reason for that is because despite what our political leaders sometimes do, the American people continue to embrace the founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance.”

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