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News of the Day
"I've been waiting for a reality check for years now. From mass immigration to climate change bullshit. From corrupted governments to men in skirts beating the piss out of women in sports. It never seems to come. Extend and pretend are the order of the day.
Who even cares anymore... Fuck it."
- Anonymous
Who Won the Debate? Ask Me in a Week to 10 Days
I am hearing mostly rah-rahs for Harris. And the instant polls show Harris was perceived as the winner. But did she pick up votes? For how long?
Germany Suspends Schengen, Immigration Repercussion Across the Entire EU
For the first time in EU history, Germany is at the forefront of immigration suspension. Other EU countries will follow.
NFIB “Mood on Main Street Darkens” Small Business Optimism Dips
The July jump in small business optimism momentum lasted precisely one month.
The McKelvey Recession Indicator Triggered, But What Are the Odds?
Many eyes are on the McKelvey recession indicator. Too many? That would probably be the case if everyone believed it.
The Consensus CPI on Wednesday Is 0.2 Percent, High, Low, or Spot On?
The Bloomberg consensus estimate is 0.2 percent. CPINow from the Cleveland Fed is 0.18 percent.
47 Percent of All Voters Think Harris Is Too Progressive
The latest New York Times / Siena College poll is a doozie. It has Trump in the lead. Let's discuss why.
GDPNow Rates the Jobs Report as Positive, That Was Not My Guess
The GDPNow Nowcast moved higher today on the "strength" (or lack thereof) of last Friday's jobs report.
Fed Beige Book Conditions Are Worse Now Than the Start of the Great Recession
Let's compare current Beige Book conditions to those at the beginning of the Great Recession.
Year-Over-Year Rent Inflation Is About to Fall Sharply
The Philadelphia Fed All Tenant Regressed Rent index suggests rapid deceleration in rent increases, perhaps even declining.
If the Fed Cuts Interest Rates a Half-Point, Should Trump Complain, Rejoice, Neither or Both?
Think carefully. I will grade your answer.
Is Trump Still Ahead If You Factor Out Nate Silver’s Bounce Adjustment?
Nate Sliver applied convention bounce adjustments to Trump and Harris, both negative. What happens if the Harris adjustment is removed?
BLS Negative Job Revisions 15 of Last 21 Months
Let's recap negative job revisions and also discuss a reader comment "This was not a poor nonfarm payroll report."
Trump Surges to a 61.5 Percent Win Probability. Is That High or Low?
Think about your answer and why. Here few snips from the latest Nate Silver Bulletin.
Key Recession Indicator Gives Stronger Recession Signal in August
A modified McKelvey recession indicator with no false positives or false negatives since 1953 suggests we are in recession now. 100 percent of the time, with no false positives or negatives, under current conditions, the economy has been in recession. What is the McKelvey Recession Indicator? Take the current value of the 3-month unemployment rate […]
Payroll Report: Manufacturing Sheds 24,000 Jobs, Government Adds 24,000, Big Negative Revisions
Other than a small 0.1 percent improvement in the unemployment rate, this was a crappy jobs report with private payrolls only +74,000.
Spotlight on US Treasuries, Where Are Long-Term Bond Yields Headed?
My guess is bond yields are heading much lower between now and September 11.
Small Businesses Reducing Workers for the Last Four Months
ADP data shows small businesses with 1-49 workers have been reducing workers for four months. Those with 25-49 workers have shed workers for 7 straight months.
ISM Services Index Up Slightly But Employment Weakens to Nearly Flat
The ISM services index was essentially unchanged but production and employment weakened with new orders rising.
Fed Beige Book Shows Flat or Declining Economy in 9 of 12 Fed Districts
The economy is cooling must faster than most recognize. The Fed's Beige Book provides more evidence.
Odds of a Half-Point Interest Rate Cut by the Fed Rise to 44 Percent
I am sticking with my call of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed. The Jobs report on Friday and the CPI report next week will determine the fate.